MARKETS OVERBOUGHT BUT HCM-BUYLINE® REMAINS POSITIVE, WATCH FOR BUYING OPPORTUNITIES

August 12, 2020

The HCM-BuyLine® is positive, and the market is overbought, so a period of consolidation is not out of the question. 

HCM-BuyLine®

S&P 500 2Q20 EARNINGS UPDATE:  

There are a number of stocks that are very beaten down which have a strong potential to rebound in the coming months. See list of companies below. 
ST                           
•  12 companies are reporting this week.
•  Of the 454 companies that have reported so far (91% of the S&P 500), 79% are beating earnings estimates by a median of 22%.
•  On the top line, 65% are beating by an average of 9%.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 249,000 last week to 1.186 million, the lowest level since March, and below the consensus of 1.4 million. The improvement reversed the upticks in the prior two weeks, putting the series back on track toward normalization. But the level is still far from normal, and nearly twice as high as its worst during the Great Recession

Continuing jobless claims for the previous week fell 844,000 to 16.107 million, its lowest level since April, while the insured jobless rate slipped to 11.0% from 11.6%. There were about 14.0 million people receiving pandemic unemployment assistance or emergency unemployment compensation, funded through the CARES Act. Since these programs expired last week, there is a significant downside risk to personal income and spending growth for the coming weeks, as the unemployment rate remains high and reopening plans have stalled. Even if Congress approves a new fiscal stimulus bill, potential changes to these programs (qualifications, size, etc.) will delay the benefit distribution, causing economic uncertainty.

Challenger job cut announcements spiked 54.3% in July to 262,649, the third-highest level on record, behind April and May this year. The 12-month average has more than tripled since the start of the recession, reaching its highest level since February 2002. Businesses cited COVID-19, market conditions, and demand downturn as the top three reasons for the announced job cuts. The majority of cuts continued to be in leisure/entertainment and retail trade. But there were also notable increases in other services, transportation, and automotive sectors. 

Sweden COVID-19 Death Cases

Sweden, who was one of the only countries to not shut down their economy and let herd immunity take hold, has zero deaths as you can see in the chart below. Starts to make you wonder, doesn’t it?

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