TRAVEL REBOUNDING AS CONSUMERS JUMP INTO REOPENING

June 10, 2020

BuyLine


The HCM BuyLine® continues to stay strong and positive. Any pullback will probably be shallow and short lived. There is a tremendous amount of cash on the side lines. The last time there was this much cash was in 2008. As you can see, money market cash is down $34b from $4.8T on 5/20/2020, which has been going back into equites and pushing the market higher. This is a modest change and still about $1T higher than it was at the start of the year. Thus, despite the strong rise in stocks, the cash on the sidelines is still tremendous. 



MMF


Hotel booking volumes have rapidly recovered, per data by ADARA Analytics Adara’s Traveler Trends Tracker also shows a massive rebound in hotel booking volumes.  The data is for domestic trips and as you can see, we have seen "Leisure - Family" booking recover to 82% of pre-COVID-19 levels. Again, we are seeing evidence of an extremely resilient US consumer. 

HotelAnother sign we could be headed to a V-shaped recovery in the economy is that travel is recovering at a very fast pace. Travel could possibly recover to pre-COVID-19 levels before year-end. Rapid recovery in TSA travel metrics suggests recovering pre-COVID-19 traffic by August 2020. The TSA has provided daily traveler throughput, which is widely reported, after a massive 97% drop, traffic has since moved up 5X to about 430,000 daily travelers.  If these trends continue, total USA traveler throughput could recover to pre-COVID-19 levels by August 2020. I wonder if Warren Buffett is rethinking selling his airline stocks like Delta Air Lines. 

travel


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