November 20, 2019

Of the 464 companies that have reported so far (93% of the S&P 500), 74% are beating earnings estimates by a median of 5%. On the top line, 54% are beating estimates by an average of 3%.  

byg 

 

We still see a normal market cycle technically despite the abnormal news backdrop. Equity markets continue to trend higher defying the bears and those waiting for the textbook pullback following the October – November surge. Our view remains unchanged and we continue to encourage investors to remain focused on the strength of the HCM-BuyLine® rather than attempting to micromanage near-term pullbacks.

Here is a piece from Economic Perspectives from Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan for 2020 that we thought was interesting.

Unknown

Source: Economic Perspective from Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan for 2020

The first month of the new fiscal year for the federal government saw October start with a deficit of $134.5 billion, 34% higher than the $100.5 billion deficit the prior October. Government receipts totaled $245.5 billion, with $126.4 billion coming from individual income taxes and $6.6 billion received from corporate income taxes. The federal government spent $380.0 billion in October, with Social Security ($89.0 billion), National Defense ($71.0 billion), and Medicare ($56.0 billion), accounting for most of the expenditures, as usual.

sec

Both import and export prices fell in October, further evidencing waning global inflation. Import prices dropped 0.5% while export prices dipped 0.1%. For the year, import prices are down 3.0%, and export prices are off 2.2%. Driving import prices lower was a 3.7% drop in petroleum prices, which more than offset a 32.0% increase in natural gas prices. Fuel prices declined 13.7% over the past year. For exports, a 0.6% decline in prices of nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials offset a 1.9% increase in agricultural export prices.

Wealth Watch

Sign up for our weekly news to hear from CEO and portfolio manager, Vance Howard.