• Sep 25, 2019

    Long-Term Nowhere Markets Causing Cash Build Up

    The HCM-BuyLine® is comfortably in an uptrend, even with all the volatility that comes with sideways markets. The markets have basically gone nowhere since 2018, despite a pretty nice run-up from the waterfall selloff in the last quarter.
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  • Sep 18, 2019

    We Expect a Market Breakout

    The HCM BuyLine® remains firmly above any area of concern. However, we are hitting some short-term resistance. As previously mentioned, we expect a small pullback of 1-4% to let the market build up steam and break out new highs, and we do expect the market to break out. We mentioned a market break out about a month ago, but trade news scuttled the rally, so only time will tell.
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  • Sep 11, 2019

    S&P is Expected To See Another Pause/Pullback

    The HCM BuyLine® is comfortably positive, and we see a rotation out of bonds and back into equities. However, a short-term pause is likely, but the longer-term cycle backdrop remains bullish through Q4 well into 2020. After a short breakout above the August trading range, the S&P is expected to see another pause/pullback point between 3000-3027 resistance coinciding with the underside of the 2019 uptrend.
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  • Sep 04, 2019

    Pullback Likely for S&P Amid Continuing Trade War

    The markets are in a very defined trading range between 2840 and 2950. Furthermore, the market is above the HCM BuyLine® and continues to trade in a back and forth pattern. With the S&P back to resistance at the upper end of its August trading range near 2940-2950 and its 50-day moving average, yet another pullback appears likely leaving the S&P bound within this trading range. Initial trading support is at the 15-day moving average (2893), followed by the low end of the August range near 2822. We expect some new chop into Q3 followed by an upside acceleration into Q4.
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  • Aug 28, 2019

    Frustration In The Markets

    The market is very frustrating right now. We should have broken out of a nice cup and handle in late July, but we were knocked back by a tweet. The market then stabilized only to be knocked back by another tweet last week. Is this a gut punch, or re-test, of last Friday's high-volume sell-off which collapsed most equity market indices back to the lower end of their high volatility? August trading ranges are raising the question of whether another shoe is set to drop heading into and through September?
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  • Aug 21, 2019

    Recession Fears High Following Inverted Yield Curve

    The HCM-BuyLine Alpha is doing a good job of keeping emotions in check during a very volatile market. The market was setting up to be a nice cup and handle pattern a few weeks back when a tweet came out about additional tariffs, and the yield curve inverted. This has shaken global confidence and sent fears of a recession running high.
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  • Aug 14, 2019


    Volatility, volatility, volatility: that has been the theme of this market since January of 2018. I would never invest without the HCM-BuyLine Alpha because there is real risk out there that needs to be managed. The market is still above the HCM-BuyLine Alpha, so we will maintain our equity holdings until the market falls below the HCM-BuyLine Alpha.
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  • Aug 07, 2019

    HCM-BuyLine Alpha has Dropped

    The HCM-BuyLine Alpha has dropped, and we are watching it closely. We will reduce equity exposure if the markets close 3.25% below the HCM-BuyLine Alpha. This bull market is the longest running in history, and sooner or later it will end.
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