• Jul 03, 2019

    Push Up and Bounce Back Expected

    The market looks like it is building up steam to break into new highs. We expect the next two weeks to see the market push up and bounce back a few times, with a high probability that the market will break out in the third quarter.
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  • Jun 27, 2019

    Expect a Modest Pullback

    The HCM-BuyLine Alpha is still nicely above any change in trend, but with that said, we are mildly overbought. A modest pullback is warranted, and we do expect one.
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  • Jun 19, 2019

    Fed To Cut Rates This Week

    The market is nicely above the HCM-BuyLine Alpha giving us plenty of room for the market to bounce back and fill. Tech has been stabilizing and moving a bit higher after a tough May. The bond market is in a nice uptrend as you can see it is clearly above the HCM-BuyLine Alpha.
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  • Jun 12, 2019

    Oversold Markets Rebound

    Last week the HCM-BuyLine Alpha came close to turning over, but like we have been saying, the markets were very oversold and poised for a sharp rebound, which did happen. With the market firmly back above the HCM-BuyLine Alpha, it gives us some room to breathe.
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  • Jun 05, 2019

    End of the Bull Market

    Is this the end of the 10-year bull market, the longest in history? Nobody knows, but historically this is how the end of a bull market looks; And yes, we are disturbed. I normally do not get disturbed, but over the last 30 years of managing the markets I have only seen a pattern close to this one once; it was the start of the 2000-2002 bear market.
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  • May 30, 2019

    Short sellers, Be Prepared for a Countertrend

    The S&P appears to be tracking our Q2 analysis with short-term trading indicators increasingly oversold for risk assets testing first key support levels. A 1-2-week trading bounce seems likely into early June given the S&P 500 is testing a 2775-2800 support band. China’s Shanghai Composite has shown early evidence of stabilization the past week at 2800-2900 while the Chinese Yuan (USDCNH) is pausing under 6.95 resistance.
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  • May 22, 2019

    Sideways and Choppy Trading

    Our outlook remains unchanged, with more sideways churn likely through Q2 and into early Q3 before further upside in the second half of the year. Intermediate-term, we expect equity markets to continue trading in a sideways, choppy range through Q2. Why?
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  • May 15, 2019

    Just Saved From the Worst Week of the Year

    Only a late rally last Friday saved the benchmark indexes from their worst week of the year. As it was, each of the indexes mentioned here fell at least 2.12%, with the Global Dow and the Nasdaq falling more than 3.0%. During the week, the small-cap Russell 2000 temporarily sank into correction territory as it drifted more than 10% below its August 2018 high.
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