• Aug 07, 2019

    HCM-BuyLine Alpha has Dropped

    The HCM-BuyLine Alpha has dropped, and we are watching it closely. We will reduce equity exposure if the markets close 3.25% below the HCM-BuyLine Alpha. This bull market is the longest running in history, and sooner or later it will end.
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  • Jul 31, 2019

    The HCM-BuyLine Is Strong

    The HCM-BuyLine Alpha is still strong, as you can see from the chart above. We see the market moving higher in Q3 and Q4, and any dips should be seen as a buying opportunity. We expect the Fed to drop rates a quarter of a point today because they have been signaling such a move for a few weeks. Not dropping rates now could be very damaging.
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  • Jul 24, 2019

    Cyclical Stock Narrative In Action

    Last week’s market action was particularly telling, reinforcing the Cyclical stock narrative. The S&P began to pause and pull back. Bond proxies, staples and defensive leadership underperformed, while a broad list of Cyclicals not only outperformed but rallied in absolute price as well.
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  • Jul 17, 2019

    Earnings Season Opens to Expectations of Pullback as Markets Remain Overbought

    Another short-term pullback appears likely given daily trading indicators are again overbought and turning down following the June-July rally that pushed major US equity indices to new highs last week. Profit-taking heading into Powell’s testimony this week and the beginning of earnings next week would not be surprising, but as always, we recommend investors remain focused on two key investment horizons.
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  • Jul 10, 2019

    Short-term Pullback Appears Likely

    Another short-term pullback appears likely given daily trading indicators are again overbought and turning down following the June-July rally that pushed major US equity indices to new highs last week. Profit-taking heading into Powell’s testimony this week and the beginning of earnings next week would not be surprising, but as always, we recommend investors remain focused on two key investment horizons.
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  • Jul 03, 2019

    Push Up and Bounce Back Expected

    The market looks like it is building up steam to break into new highs. We expect the next two weeks to see the market push up and bounce back a few times, with a high probability that the market will break out in the third quarter.
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  • Jun 27, 2019

    Expect a Modest Pullback

    The HCM-BuyLine Alpha is still nicely above any change in trend, but with that said, we are mildly overbought. A modest pullback is warranted, and we do expect one.
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  • Jun 19, 2019

    Fed To Cut Rates This Week

    The market is nicely above the HCM-BuyLine Alpha giving us plenty of room for the market to bounce back and fill. Tech has been stabilizing and moving a bit higher after a tough May. The bond market is in a nice uptrend as you can see it is clearly above the HCM-BuyLine Alpha.
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