• June 5, 2019

    Is this the end of the 10-year bull market, the longest in history? Nobody knows, but historically this is how the end of a bull market looks; And yes, we are disturbed. I normally do not get disturbed, but over the last 30 years of managing the markets I have only seen a pattern close to this one once; it was the start of the 2000-2002 bear market.
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  • May 30, 2019

    The S&P appears to be tracking our Q2 analysis with short-term trading indicators increasingly oversold for risk assets testing first key support levels. A 1-2-week trading bounce seems likely into early June given the S&P 500 is testing a 2775-2800 support band. China’s Shanghai Composite has shown early evidence of stabilization the past week at 2800-2900 while the Chinese Yuan (USDCNH) is pausing under 6.95 resistance.
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  • May 22, 2019

    Our outlook remains unchanged, with more sideways churn likely through Q2 and into early Q3 before further upside in the second half of the year. Intermediate-term, we expect equity markets to continue trading in a sideways, choppy range through Q2. Why?
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  • May 15, 2019

    Only a late rally last Friday saved the benchmark indexes from their worst week of the year. As it was, each of the indexes mentioned here fell at least 2.12%, with the Global Dow and the Nasdaq falling more than 3.0%. During the week, the small-cap Russell 2000 temporarily sank into correction territory as it drifted more than 10% below its August 2018 high.
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  • May 8, 2019

    The trade issue with China has caused a lot of volatility the last few days. Nobody really knows what will happen, but odds are high that a deal will be struck. So what happens if we don't strike a trade deal?
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  • May 1, 2019

    Monthly cycle momentum is building positively into the end of April. The longer-term cycle backdrop continues to improve with the percentage of stocks rising (positive) and monthly momentum continuing to strengthen heading into month-end, from 11% at the end of December to an April month-end value likely to be just above 50%.
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