• August 28, 2019

    The market is very frustrating right now. We should have broken out of a nice cup and handle in late July, but we were knocked back by a tweet. The market then stabilized only to be knocked back by another tweet last week. Is this a gut punch, or re-test, of last Friday's high-volume sell-off which collapsed most equity market indices back to the lower end of their high volatility? August trading ranges are raising the question of whether another shoe is set to drop heading into and through September?
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  • August 21, 2019

    The HCM-BuyLine Alpha is doing a good job of keeping emotions in check during a very volatile market. The market was setting up to be a nice cup and handle pattern a few weeks back when a tweet came out about additional tariffs, and the yield curve inverted. This has shaken global confidence and sent fears of a recession running high.
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  • August 14, 2019

    Volatility, volatility, volatility: that has been the theme of this market since January of 2018. I would never invest without the HCM-BuyLine Alpha because there is real risk out there that needs to be managed. The market is still above the HCM-BuyLine Alpha, so we will maintain our equity holdings until the market falls below the HCM-BuyLine Alpha.
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  • August 7, 2019

    The HCM-BuyLine Alpha has dropped, and we are watching it closely. We will reduce equity exposure if the markets close 3.25% below the HCM-BuyLine Alpha. This bull market is the longest running in history, and sooner or later it will end.
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  • July 31, 2019

    The HCM-BuyLine Alpha is still strong, as you can see from the chart above. We see the market moving higher in Q3 and Q4, and any dips should be seen as a buying opportunity. We expect the Fed to drop rates a quarter of a point today because they have been signaling such a move for a few weeks. Not dropping rates now could be very damaging.
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  • July 24, 2019

    Last week’s market action was particularly telling, reinforcing the Cyclical stock narrative. The S&P began to pause and pull back. Bond proxies, staples and defensive leadership underperformed, while a broad list of Cyclicals not only outperformed but rallied in absolute price as well.
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