• October 9, 2019

    Today is Yom Kippur, the Jewish holiday for a Day of Atonement. We historically have seen lighter market volumes on this holiday. US-China Trade remains the story as today’s headlines are optimistic and push markets higher. China has said they are open to a partial trade deal if Trump eases Tariff threats, and the markets have responded positively.
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  • October 2, 2019

    We have been saying a 3-5% pullback is likely, and it is now taking place. We called for a modest pullback because one of our indicators hit a short-term overbought signal on 9-18 which signaled a pullback was near.
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  • September 25, 2019

    The HCM-BuyLine® is comfortably in an uptrend, even with all the volatility that comes with sideways markets. The markets have basically gone nowhere since 2018, despite a pretty nice run-up from the waterfall selloff in the last quarter.
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  • September 18, 2019

    The HCM BuyLine® remains firmly above any area of concern. However, we are hitting some short-term resistance. As previously mentioned, we expect a small pullback of 1-4% to let the market build up steam and break out new highs, and we do expect the market to break out. We mentioned a market break out about a month ago, but trade news scuttled the rally, so only time will tell.
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  • September 11, 2019

    The HCM BuyLine® is comfortably positive, and we see a rotation out of bonds and back into equities. However, a short-term pause is likely, but the longer-term cycle backdrop remains bullish through Q4 well into 2020. After a short breakout above the August trading range, the S&P is expected to see another pause/pullback point between 3000-3027 resistance coinciding with the underside of the 2019 uptrend.
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  • September 4, 2019

    The markets are in a very defined trading range between 2840 and 2950. Furthermore, the market is above the HCM BuyLine® and continues to trade in a back and forth pattern. With the S&P back to resistance at the upper end of its August trading range near 2940-2950 and its 50-day moving average, yet another pullback appears likely leaving the S&P bound within this trading range. Initial trading support is at the 15-day moving average (2893), followed by the low end of the August range near 2822. We expect some new chop into Q3 followed by an upside acceleration into Q4.
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