• September 11, 2019

    The HCM BuyLine® is comfortably positive, and we see a rotation out of bonds and back into equities. However, a short-term pause is likely, but the longer-term cycle backdrop remains bullish through Q4 well into 2020. After a short breakout above the August trading range, the S&P is expected to see another pause/pullback point between 3000-3027 resistance coinciding with the underside of the 2019 uptrend.
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  • September 4, 2019

    The markets are in a very defined trading range between 2840 and 2950. Furthermore, the market is above the HCM BuyLine® and continues to trade in a back and forth pattern. With the S&P back to resistance at the upper end of its August trading range near 2940-2950 and its 50-day moving average, yet another pullback appears likely leaving the S&P bound within this trading range. Initial trading support is at the 15-day moving average (2893), followed by the low end of the August range near 2822. We expect some new chop into Q3 followed by an upside acceleration into Q4.
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  • August 28, 2019

    The market is very frustrating right now. We should have broken out of a nice cup and handle in late July, but we were knocked back by a tweet. The market then stabilized only to be knocked back by another tweet last week. Is this a gut punch, or re-test, of last Friday's high-volume sell-off which collapsed most equity market indices back to the lower end of their high volatility? August trading ranges are raising the question of whether another shoe is set to drop heading into and through September?
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  • August 21, 2019

    The HCM-BuyLine Alpha is doing a good job of keeping emotions in check during a very volatile market. The market was setting up to be a nice cup and handle pattern a few weeks back when a tweet came out about additional tariffs, and the yield curve inverted. This has shaken global confidence and sent fears of a recession running high.
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  • August 14, 2019

    Volatility, volatility, volatility: that has been the theme of this market since January of 2018. I would never invest without the HCM-BuyLine Alpha because there is real risk out there that needs to be managed. The market is still above the HCM-BuyLine Alpha, so we will maintain our equity holdings until the market falls below the HCM-BuyLine Alpha.
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  • August 7, 2019

    The HCM-BuyLine Alpha has dropped, and we are watching it closely. We will reduce equity exposure if the markets close 3.25% below the HCM-BuyLine Alpha. This bull market is the longest running in history, and sooner or later it will end.
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