• May 8, 2019

    The trade issue with China has caused a lot of volatility the last few days. Nobody really knows what will happen, but odds are high that a deal will be struck. So what happens if we don't strike a trade deal?
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  • May 1, 2019

    Monthly cycle momentum is building positively into the end of April. The longer-term cycle backdrop continues to improve with the percentage of stocks rising (positive) and monthly momentum continuing to strengthen heading into month-end, from 11% at the end of December to an April month-end value likely to be just above 50%.
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  • April 25, 2019

    The market is starting to hit resistance in the 2935 area on the S&P 500. We do expect a pause and a modest selloff. This should be viewed as an opportunity to add to your positions, as we expect the second quarter to be a period of consolidation followed by a 3rd and 4th quarter rally into year end.
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  • April 17, 2019

    After years of flirting, the yield curve finally inverted. For the next decade, the U.S. government can borrow at a lower interest rate than it can for the next three months. The bears have been quick to point out the 10-year to 3-month yield curve’s track record for predicting recessions and market performance. The emphasis for the past two years has been on the near-inversion of the 10-year to 2-year yield curve.
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  • April 10, 2019

    The first quarter was a mirror image of 2018. Stocks went back to beating bonds and six out of eight major asset classes posted gains of at least 5%. A typical U.S. 60/40 portfolio (S&P 500 Total Return/Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Total Return) put in a strong performance for the quarter at 9.29%, above its long-term historical gain per annum of 7.77%, and recouped the losses from Q4 and more.
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  • April 3, 2019

    The S&P 500 Index gained 13.1% in Q1, the best start to the year since 1998, 21 years! When the S&P 500 has gained at least 10% in Q1, it has risen the last nine months of the year 85% of the time by a median of 7.0% versus a median of 6.2% for all Q2-Q4s since 1926.
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