• Sep 04, 2019

    Pullback Likely for S&P Amid Continuing Trade War

    The markets are in a very defined trading range between 2840 and 2950. Furthermore, the market is above the HCM BuyLine® and continues to trade in a back and forth pattern. With the S&P back to resistance at the upper end of its August trading range near 2940-2950 and its 50-day moving average, yet another pullback appears likely leaving the S&P bound within this trading range. Initial trading support is at the 15-day moving average (2893), followed by the low end of the August range near 2822. We expect some new chop into Q3 followed by an upside acceleration into Q4.
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  • Aug 28, 2019

    Frustration In The Markets

    The market is very frustrating right now. We should have broken out of a nice cup and handle in late July, but we were knocked back by a tweet. The market then stabilized only to be knocked back by another tweet last week. Is this a gut punch, or re-test, of last Friday's high-volume sell-off which collapsed most equity market indices back to the lower end of their high volatility? August trading ranges are raising the question of whether another shoe is set to drop heading into and through September?
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  • Aug 21, 2019

    Recession Fears High Following Inverted Yield Curve

    The HCM-BuyLine Alpha is doing a good job of keeping emotions in check during a very volatile market. The market was setting up to be a nice cup and handle pattern a few weeks back when a tweet came out about additional tariffs, and the yield curve inverted. This has shaken global confidence and sent fears of a recession running high.
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  • Aug 14, 2019


    Volatility, volatility, volatility: that has been the theme of this market since January of 2018. I would never invest without the HCM-BuyLine Alpha because there is real risk out there that needs to be managed. The market is still above the HCM-BuyLine Alpha, so we will maintain our equity holdings until the market falls below the HCM-BuyLine Alpha.
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  • Aug 07, 2019

    HCM-BuyLine Alpha has Dropped

    The HCM-BuyLine Alpha has dropped, and we are watching it closely. We will reduce equity exposure if the markets close 3.25% below the HCM-BuyLine Alpha. This bull market is the longest running in history, and sooner or later it will end.
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  • Jul 31, 2019

    The HCM-BuyLine Is Strong

    The HCM-BuyLine Alpha is still strong, as you can see from the chart above. We see the market moving higher in Q3 and Q4, and any dips should be seen as a buying opportunity. We expect the Fed to drop rates a quarter of a point today because they have been signaling such a move for a few weeks. Not dropping rates now could be very damaging.
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  • Jul 24, 2019

    Cyclical Stock Narrative In Action

    Last week’s market action was particularly telling, reinforcing the Cyclical stock narrative. The S&P began to pause and pull back. Bond proxies, staples and defensive leadership underperformed, while a broad list of Cyclicals not only outperformed but rallied in absolute price as well.
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  • Jul 17, 2019

    Earnings Season Opens to Expectations of Pullback as Markets Remain Overbought

    Another short-term pullback appears likely given daily trading indicators are again overbought and turning down following the June-July rally that pushed major US equity indices to new highs last week. Profit-taking heading into Powell’s testimony this week and the beginning of earnings next week would not be surprising, but as always, we recommend investors remain focused on two key investment horizons.
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