• Jun 05, 2019

    End of the Bull Market

    Is this the end of the 10-year bull market, the longest in history? Nobody knows, but historically this is how the end of a bull market looks; And yes, we are disturbed. I normally do not get disturbed, but over the last 30 years of managing the markets I have only seen a pattern close to this one once; it was the start of the 2000-2002 bear market.
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  • May 30, 2019

    Short sellers, Be Prepared for a Countertrend

    The S&P appears to be tracking our Q2 analysis with short-term trading indicators increasingly oversold for risk assets testing first key support levels. A 1-2-week trading bounce seems likely into early June given the S&P 500 is testing a 2775-2800 support band. China’s Shanghai Composite has shown early evidence of stabilization the past week at 2800-2900 while the Chinese Yuan (USDCNH) is pausing under 6.95 resistance.
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  • May 22, 2019

    Sideways and Choppy Trading

    Our outlook remains unchanged, with more sideways churn likely through Q2 and into early Q3 before further upside in the second half of the year. Intermediate-term, we expect equity markets to continue trading in a sideways, choppy range through Q2. Why?
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  • May 15, 2019

    Just Saved From the Worst Week of the Year

    Only a late rally last Friday saved the benchmark indexes from their worst week of the year. As it was, each of the indexes mentioned here fell at least 2.12%, with the Global Dow and the Nasdaq falling more than 3.0%. During the week, the small-cap Russell 2000 temporarily sank into correction territory as it drifted more than 10% below its August 2018 high.
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  • May 08, 2019

    Upcoming Pullbacks Could Be Buying Opportunities

    The trade issue with China has caused a lot of volatility the last few days. Nobody really knows what will happen, but odds are high that a deal will be struck. So what happens if we don't strike a trade deal?
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  • May 01, 2019

    Monthly Momentum Gaining Strength

    Monthly cycle momentum is building positively into the end of April. The longer-term cycle backdrop continues to improve with the percentage of stocks rising (positive) and monthly momentum continuing to strengthen heading into month-end, from 11% at the end of December to an April month-end value likely to be just above 50%.
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  • Apr 25, 2019

    Expect a Modest Selloff

    The market is starting to hit resistance in the 2935 area on the S&P 500. We do expect a pause and a modest selloff. This should be viewed as an opportunity to add to your positions, as we expect the second quarter to be a period of consolidation followed by a 3rd and 4th quarter rally into year end.
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  • Apr 17, 2019

    Yield Curve Finally Inverted

    After years of flirting, the yield curve finally inverted. For the next decade, the U.S. government can borrow at a lower interest rate than it can for the next three months. The bears have been quick to point out the 10-year to 3-month yield curve’s track record for predicting recessions and market performance. The emphasis for the past two years has been on the near-inversion of the 10-year to 2-year yield curve.
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